Tuesday, September 10, 2013


DAX Daily
Alternation guideline did not take place - both 2 and 4 are zigzags - what is strange.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

AGN - Allergan Inc

Biotech in slow uptrend. Things will be little turbulent when wave 4 will come.

Monday, April 29, 2013

SPX - not giving up

Big re-labeling. Nothing to do here.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Attention, get ready for descent

Currently SPX posed for downside move. I must to admit, the current count looks ugly and easily can be argued. But unless rules are broken this is it. Next downtrend will target $1492 zone.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

SPX says "I'm fine, give me another one"

SPX failed to create downside impulse. Another stage of wave re-labeling... nothing is invalidated, just things keep stretch in time.

Monday, April 8, 2013

You can buy some gold now

You can buy some gold, but it's not rally yet... It will stop around $1700.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

SPX - how long?

Timing is everything. I think everybody already talking about reversal... But just think about how much money you would have blown up on put time premiums during last month. SPX just bought another couple of days hiding from crash.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

SPX - match point

Another critical point. Ending diagonal must stop there.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Apple - $390 here we come

AAPL - long term
It seems Apple Inc. will teach "retail" investors a lesson... Wave 5 is just around the corner. Wave equality between 1 and 3, alternation rule (wave 2 was sharp and wave 4 is flat correction) just boosts chances for this scenario...

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Priceline inc

One good guy asked me to make analysis of this stock so here it is... Elliott wave says $200 pull back is just around the corner. It could be sharp decline in case of flat correction takes place or another zigzag will come. But definitely this stock will see a new high some day, but it can take couple of years to get there. I just don't want to post long term outlooks for stocks in correction phases.

I like Baidu

Great case for long term portfolio stock... wave 4 might just have ended and next year we will see new up trend.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

FB - future uncertain

$17.55 to $30.56 - corrective formation, probably double combination, could become triple combination. Current decline could be the second wave (x) to form triple combination or start of the new formation of the
same degree as double combination.

Future uncertain here. The only thing that matters right now - impulse waves head down. It means we are in downtrend.

New highs coming

SPX - short term
I don't read news, but Bernanke must say something to show must go on... 1525 level will be critical for this scenario. Grab popcorn!

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

SPX - new count

I think old count no longer valid and we must switch to the new one.

SPX - long term
This is more pessimistic one... instead of wave X in global correction SPX is finishing wave 5 which took form of ending diagonal. This means we have some more upside to 1580 area but after this mark everything becomes dark...

SPX - short-term
Fibonacci cluster is at 1585 and people should exit their longs there... Still, it does not mean you should go short right there.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Game over for Citigroup?

Citygroup Inc. quickly approaching critical fibonacci cluster.. On one of these levels will be final.. Price should not go above $53 - it will invalidate wave count.

C - Long term
C - short term

Friday, March 8, 2013

Apple update

AAPL almost finished wave 3 of the downfall and poised for correction. Don't buy too much though as it could be flat correction and prices will just continue to fall. Wave 5 is expected to be the shortest one in this impulse formation. Current scenario will be invalidated if price will go above $505 mark.

CREE is slowing down

This crazy uptrend will stop in a couple of days and we will have ability to place shorts and buy stock later at better rates. Long term view (if you plan to hold the stock for the next year or more) is bearish.

First Solar, Inc

Big correction started at First Solar, Inc.  Prices will jump a little higher into $32 area after small decline that is almost finished now. But make no mistake, it will be just wave B of the correction so new lows will follow.


Netflix update


Nothing special here, slow uptrend

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Zynga minor regroup

Small wave regrouping

Do you have blackberry?

Sometime Reserch in Motion will see new high. Meanwhile, I think correction is not finished. And wave B will stretch in time.

Long term future of Apple Inc

AAPL - Primary count

So Apple Inc. has future! There are two counts and both say AAPL will hit a new high.. Dates are messed up on chart (Motive Wave still needs to fix things in their software) but I think it will happen on summer of the next year.

But short term outlook does not look so uptrend... Price targets $200 area. Of course it will not happen overnight and not in one big move, we have a strong chance to see flat correction in this wave 4 because of alternation rule.

AAPL - Alternative count
Alternative count suggests that intermediate wave 3 is not finished and there will be much lighter pull back rather than $200. Maximum of this pull back will be $310, and more realistic target will be $360. But in general it is less likely scenario because this huge volume on chart wants to say where real wave 3 is.

Monday, March 4, 2013


Really nothing interesting here. Maybe if price will dip below 148.67 it can turn into flat.

More SPX alternative count

Another day, another wave. Price/time balance of wave 4 shows that triangle is highly unlikely to appear. As we know from Robert Prechter's guidelines triangles only in appear in wave 4 ( in wave 2 only in combination) before trend reversal. So this fact kind of opens up the door for new possible upside scenarios. We will have to start looking for alternatives when SPX breaks 1565 level.

Facebook - bigger picture

FB - long term
Looks like double zigzag took place in wave 4. Here is more detailed count on sub levels.

FB - lower time frames

Zynga update

Zynga is moving according to the plan now.. no surprises here. However, price/time of corrective waves suggest that they belong to the high degree waves thus might be one-two's and future extensions of the waves 3 will follow. But let's be realistic for now.. it's early to buy out of the money calls ( at least a lot of them :) )

Friday, March 1, 2013

SPX update

Very interesting Fibonacci combination... If SPX will rise beyond 1565 level it will invalidate current count that goes 1 year back. But target for ongoing wave 5 is around 1555.


Tuesday, February 26, 2013

SPX - Final countdown

SPX about to make a rise. Since it could be final wave 5 before trend reversal we can see diagonal triangle that will unfold in three's


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

SPX - wave 4 in progress

Wave 4 in progress. High chance to see triangle. If it comes out - signal for larger degree trend reversal.


Hight confidence that current downside impulse is just a correction because of 3 vs 1 ratio is ~100% as wave 3 is never the shortest one.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Zynga still plays

Zynga is much like Netflix here. At least 3 three-four's ahead of us.


Facebook - last race before correction

Facebook going to climb wave 5 now. Not sure if wave 4 already finished but time-price balance looks fine to me. Even if no impulse follows wave 4 we must have some pull back (wave 2 in alternative scenario or wave X).

Trading strategy:  Buying near vertical spreads

SPX - tethering on the brink of collapse

The end is near. SPX probably going into last wave 4 before global trend reversal.

Main strategy: Out of the market.

Volatility is so low (9%) so you can't get any reasonable premium. Corrections and weak wave 5 ahead. Nothing to do here.

Netflix - extension paradise

Netflix gone wild. I counted 5 one-twos. Expect three-four 5 times soon, not less.


Main strategy: Premium selling.

There will be only wave 4s and 5s from here - price will be range bound for some time.

Every time NFLX bounces up from support line (wave 4 range of the first complete impulse) you must be selling  put verticals.

Selling 4 times on weeklies is better than selling 1 monthly spread because Theta is bigger on weeklies and you can grab more premium faster.